Forecasting the Maintained Score from the OpenSSF Scorecard for GitHub Repositories linked to PyPI libraries

Zusammenfassung

The OpenSSF Scorecard is widely used to assess the security posture of open-source software repositories, with the Maintained metric serving as a key indicator of recent maintenance activities, helping users identify actively maintained projects and potentially abandoned dependencies. However, the metric is inherently retrospective, providing only a short-term snapshot based on the past 90 days of repository activity and offering no insight into the future. This limitation complicates risk assessment for developers and organizations that rely on open-source dependencies. In this paper, we investigate the feasibility of forecasting future maintenance activities as captured by the OpenSSF Maintained score. Focusing on 3,220 GitHub repositories linked to one of the top 1% most central PyPI libraries, as ranked by PageRank, we reconstruct historical Maintained scores over a three-year period and frame the problem as a multivariate time series forecasting task. We study four target representations: the raw Maintained score, a bucketed score capturing low, moderate, and high maintenance levels, the numerical trend slope between consecutive scores, and categorical trend types (downward, stable, upward). We compare a statistical model (VARMA), a machine learning model (Random Forest), and a deep learning model (LSTM) using training windows of 3–12 months and forecasting horizons of 1–6 months. Our results show that future maintenance activity can be forecasted with meaningful accuracy, particularly when using aggregated representations such as bucketed scores and trend types leading to accuracies above 0.95 and 0.80. Notably, simpler statistical and machine learning models perform at least on par with deep learning approaches, suggesting that effective forecasting does not require complex architectures. These findings demonstrate that predictive modeling can complement existing Scorecard metrics, enabling more proactive assessment of maintenance activities in open-source software ecosystems.